News
Dollar oil is collapsing, US admits recession likely
发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：115
The latest CPI data in the United States has dropped significantly, from 9.1% in the previous month to 8.5%, which is also the level in March this year. Many analysts in the market have predicted that the high inflation in the United States has begun to peak and fall.
However, in the minutes of the meeting released by the Fed, for the first time, a recession-related forecast appeared, which means that the Fed admits that the possibility of a future economic recession is becoming more and more likely.
The report believes that interest rates will continue to be raised in the future until inflation drops sharply, and the U.S. economy is experiencing an increasing probability of recession in the next few quarters; and the Federal Reserve also admitted that due to the delayed effect of raising interest rates , so it is difficult to avoid the adverse effects of excessive interest rate hikes in the future economy.
In the just-released data on new home sales, the month saw a sharp drop, from 512 to 4.81 million, indicating a pullback in the real estate market.
Meanwhile, the poll also showed that more than 80 percent of respondents were worried about a recession, and half felt they might lose their jobs in the future.
02
In the international financial market, the status of the dollar is being challenged.
Since the establishment of the U.S. dollar oil system in the 1970s, global oil pricing and transactions have been settled in U.S. dollars. Therefore, oil-producing countries in the Middle East have accumulated a lot of dollar wealth in the past oil trade, and many of these oil-producing countries have exchanged their dollars for US treasury bonds.
But in the past year or two, various countries in the Middle East are selling off their U.S. debt by a large margin.
At the beginning of 2020 when the new crown epidemic broke out, Saudi Arabia also held more than 180 billion US dollars of US debt. However, recent data released by the US Treasury Department shows that Saudi Arabia currently holds less than 115 billion US dollars in US debt. In the past two years, Saudi Arabia has been in a continuous sell-off as a whole, and the amount of U.S. bonds sold is close to 70 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 40%.
Similarly, the United Arab Emirates, another Middle Eastern country, has reduced its holdings of more than $60 billion in U.S. debt to around $35 billion in just the past year. The sell-off was bigger than the Saudi one, by more than 40%.
There is now more and more bad news for the status of the dollar.
After the European conflict, Russia demanded that natural gas be settled in rubles; in June this year, India settled Russian coal in yuan; in July, there was new news that oil trade between China and Saudi Arabia will be settled in yuan in the future. An agreement is now on the horizon.
The seemingly unbreakable dollar oil system is unraveling.
03
A few days ago, the reaction of U.S. stocks was relatively flat. US stocks rose slightly last night. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was mostly in a state of decline throughout the trading period, but it finally rose when it was nearing the close.
In terms of specific individual stocks, the performance of technology stocks is relatively ordinary, whether it is up or down, the range is small.
What stood out last night were some stocks related to energy and semiconductors.
Stimulated by the US chip technology bill, ON Semiconductor rose again yesterday by 7%, and its stock price refreshed a record high. In addition, Qualcomm is trying to join the server chip market again, and its stock price rose nearly 2% last night.