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Analysis of international oil price trends, foreign exchange builds a new small white label, and monopolizes the market

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：125

The international oil price fell sharply again overnight and hit a new low since the second half of the year. In the next week, as long as the international oil price does not rebound sharply, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices that car owners are thinking about are expected to usher in a "five consecutive declines".

 

At the close in the early morning of August 16, Beijing time, New York crude oil futures closed at $87.85/barrel, falling below the $90/barrel mark again, a drop of 4.6%; London Brent crude oil futures closed at $93.47/barrel, a drop of 4.77% %, of which New York crude oil futures hit a new low since February 4 this year, and Brent crude oil futures hit a new low since February 22 this year.

 

 

According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the next round of domestic gasoline and diesel price adjustments will be on August 23, which is 24:00 next Tuesday. Industry insiders estimate that up to now, the adjustment rate of domestic oil prices has exceeded 200 yuan / ton, which is about two cents a liter. In the next week, as long as international oil prices do not rebound sharply, the "five consecutive declines" in domestic oil prices are expected to come true.

 

 

At present, the retail price of No. 92 gasoline in Zhejiang Province is 8.4 yuan per liter, and that of No. 95 gasoline is 8.94 yuan per liter. During the "four consecutive drops", the cumulative reduction of No. 92 gasoline is 0.89 yuan per liter, and a full tank of fuel (calculated by 50 liters) for private cars can save 44.5 yuan; the cumulative reduction of No. 95 gasoline is 0.94 yuan per liter.

 

 

International oil prices have fallen for the past two consecutive days, which is related to expectations of changes in crude oil demand. At present, there is new progress in the negotiation of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the Iran nuclear agreement may be reached, which has triggered the market's expectations and expectations for the recovery of Iran's oil exports, which will further increase the supply of crude oil in the market and break the original balance between international crude oil supply and demand, thereby promoting International oil prices fell.

 

It is also understood that in the week to August 12, Russian crude oil exports fell sharply to the lowest level since March, and the number of shipments to major Asian buyers fell to the lowest level since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February. The Financial Associated Press reported that Russia will reduce the oil export tax to $52 per ton from September 1, which will stimulate Russian crude oil exports and pull down international oil prices.

 

In addition, the US CPI rose by 8.5% year-on-year in July, although it was lower than expected, it was still at a high level, and the inflation pressure was not small. After the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for two consecutive months, the largest single rate hike since 1994, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. .

 

In the context of the Fed's continued interest rate hikes, in order to avoid capital outflows, central banks have been forced to raise interest rates one after another. The increase in interest rates has increased corporate financing costs, dragged down economic activity, increased fears of a global recession, and further reduced expectations for crude oil demand.