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Baidu Finance: Raise interest rates by 50 basis points! Economic Impact Discussion

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：125

On the 4th local time, in order to curb inflation, the Bank of England announced to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, raising the benchmark interest rate from 1.25% to 1.75%, which is the largest rate hike since 1995. The market is closely watching the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates. 

 

Before the announcement of the interest rate decision, the exchange rate of sterling against the dollar rose by about 0.3%, but after the Bank of England officially announced a rate hike of 50 basis points and warned that the economy will be in a long-term recession, the pound quickly pared gains and turned. It fell below 1 pound to US$1.21 at one point, down more than 0.6% on the day. 

 

Regarding the future trend of the pound, UBS analysts predict that the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar may fall to 1 pound to 1.15 US dollars in the fourth quarter of this year, almost the same as when the epidemic broke out in 2020.

 

 

Bank of England warns economy will slip into recession in Q4

 

The Bank of England said on Thursday that the recent rise in natural gas prices has led to a marked deterioration in the economic outlook for the UK and many other European countries. 

 

The Bank of England expects energy prices to rise 75% in October this year compared to the same period last year, pushing UK inflation above 13% in the fourth quarter of this year, at a time when the UK economy is likely to enter a recession from the fourth quarter. The central bank expects the recession to last five quarters.

 

The three major European stock markets closed slightly higher on the 4th

 

Although the news from the Bank of England hit the market sentiment, but because the latest corporate earnings report provided a positive boost, the three major European stock markets still collectively closed slightly higher on Thursday, of which the London stock market in the United Kingdom rose the least at 0.03%. , the French Paris stock market rose 0.64%, Germany's Frankfurt stock market rose 0.55%.

 

The three major U.S. stock market indexes were mixed on the 4th, and energy stocks were generally lower

 

In the United States, the market is waiting for the heavy economic data to be released on Friday, local time, namely the US non-farm payrolls report for July. Investor sentiment is more cautious. The three major US stock indexes closed the day mixed, but the range Not big. Among them, the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.26% and 0.08% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose 0.41%.

 

From the perspective of the disk, dragged down by the decline in international oil prices, energy stocks generally fell, Marathon Oil fell by more than 6%, and Occidental Oil fell by more than 5%.

 

Most of the large technology stocks rose, and Chinese concept stocks also generally rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 2.3%.

 

International oil prices fell more than 2% on the 4th

 

In terms of oil prices, affected by the sharp increase in crude oil inventories in the United States last week, international oil prices continued to decline on Thursday. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 2.34% to close at 1.34% per barrel. 88.54 US dollars; London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery fell 2.75% to close at 94.12 US dollars a barrel.

 

Saudi pushes premiums on crude oil to Asia to record

 

Although the international oil price has been falling continuously in recent days, the world's largest energy company Saudi Aramco announced the latest quotation yesterday, raising the price of Arabian light crude oil shipped to Asian refineries in September by 50 cents per barrel compared with August, making the overall price higher than that of Oman. - Dubai benchmark crude traded up $9.8 a barrel, the highest premium ever.

 

Market analysts said that Saudi Aramco's monthly pricing decision is regarded as a bellwether for the oil market. The increase in prices means that even if the current oil price has fallen sharply, due to the continued strong demand for crude oil in Asia and the limited supply of Russian crude oil, 9 The supply and demand relationship of crude oil in the international market remained tense in August, and oil-producing countries still dominated the price.