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Baidu report: US inflation may have peaked, MT4.MT5 related news

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：122

Reference News Network reported on July 25 that according to the US "Wall Street Journal" website reported on July 23, there are growing signs that price pressures are easing, suggesting that the year-on-year increase of 9.1% in US consumer prices in June may be the peak. .

 

Even if inflation does fall, economists expect the decline will be slow.

 

Ed Heyman, chairman of Efeco International Strategy and Investment Group in the United States, said that many indicators show that the 9.1% inflation rate may have peaked.

 

Gasoline prices have fallen about 10% from a high of $5.02 a gallon in mid-June, the AAA said. Wheat futures are down 37% from mid-May, and corn futures are down 27% from mid-June. The cost of shipping goods from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast is down 11.4 percent from a month ago, said Norway-based shipping data and procurement firm Xeneta.

 

Business surveys show that price pressures have eased and backlogs and supplier lead times have improved. These factors suggest that supply chain disruption is unraveling. Hyman pointed to a sharp slowdown in money supply growth, a sign that monetary tightening measures are starting to take effect.

 

Inflation expectations have also fallen recently - a positive sign for the Fed. The Fed believes that inflation expectations affect wages and pricing behavior, which in turn affects actual inflation. Long-term inflation expectations fell from 3.1% in June to 2.8% in late June and early July, matching the average for the 20 years before the outbreak, according to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey.

 

Bond investors are less concerned about inflation, according to the "breakeven inflation rate" -- the difference between the yield on the regular five-year Treasury note and the yield on inflation-linked bonds -- from an all-time high of 3.59% in late March fell to 2.67%.

 

Inflation-linked derivatives and bonds point to a decline in the annual increase in the consumer price index to 2.3% within a year, close to the Fed's 2% target, the Intercontinental Exchange said. Piper Jaffray economist Roberto Pellley said such a result was "optimistic, but not entirely implausible." From February to early June, investors believed that inflation would remain in the 4% to 5% range for a year.

 

"This is a step in the right direction, but ultimately we're looking at an overheated inflation environment even if inflation peaks in June," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. She forecasts that in the fourth quarter The inflation rate is between 7.5% and 7.8%. "So, whether it peaks or not, inflation will continue to be painful through the end of the year," she said.

 

Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said the slower inflation falls, the greater the chance of a damaging recession.

 

U.S. core inflation -- which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is considered a better measure of inflation trends -- was 5.9 percent in June, down from a peak of 6.5 percent in March. But both House and Ryan forecast core inflation to pick up and peak around September. That's because of strong price growth for housing and other services, combined with a low base of comparison when calculated on a 12-month cycle.

 

"The longer the inflationary pressure persists, the more the Fed will need to (raise rates) in response to the pressure," Ryan said. "That suggests a heightened recession risk."