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Baidu Finance, MT4.MT5 foreign exchange information: Why is the RMB still strong?
发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：114
Affected by the rising US dollar index, non-US currencies such as the euro, the yen, the pound, and the Australian dollar continued to depreciate to low levels during the year.
In contrast, the RMB exchange rate is much stronger and more stable than other non-US currencies. This reflects that the overall situation of my country's foreign exchange market is stable, and it has shown strong resilience in the face of complex and volatile international and domestic situations.
Since the beginning of this year, my country's foreign exchange market has encountered many international and domestic challenges. Among them, the phenomenon of foreign investment in RMB bonds has attracted market attention.
In recent years, with the continuous expansion of my country's bond market opening up, RMB bonds have been included in major international bond indices one after another. Coupled with the positive returns of RMB bonds, foreign holdings of RMB bond assets have continued to increase. As of the end of January this year, foreign investors have increased their holdings of renminbi bonds for 38 consecutive months, according to data from the China Central Clearing Corporation.
After entering into February this year, some foreign investors began to reduce their holdings of RMB bonds continuously, which aroused the concern of some market participants.
Overall, although affected by changes in the external environment, some channels of foreign investment have undergone periodic adjustments, but this has not changed the overall balance of cross-border capital in my country.
In the first five months of this year, banks still maintained a surplus of US$79.2 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales. In particular, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-banking sectors such as enterprises and individuals was US$86.2 billion. over $10 billion.
The steady inflow of cross-border funds related to the real economy such as trade and investment has played a role in stabilizing the fundamentals of the foreign exchange market. At present, my country's import and export of goods maintains a growth trend. Against this background, the net inflow of cross-border capital under trade in goods from January to May was US$214.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%.
At the same time, foreign direct investment maintained a booming development trend. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, from January to May, the net inflow of foreign capital in the non-financial sector was US$87.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, demonstrating the attractiveness of domestic economic development prospects and market potential to medium and long-term capital.
The reduction of foreign holdings of domestic RMB bond assets this time can be regarded as an exam for China to coordinate the expansion of opening-up and risk prevention, and test the resilience of China's financial market system. Some foreign investors have reduced their holdings of RMB bonds, mainly because of the divergence of the economic cycle and monetary policy between China and the United States, the rapid convergence or even inversion of the interest rate spread between China and the United States, and the increased attractiveness of US bonds.
In 4 months, the net outflow of cross-border funds under securities investment has exceeded 100 billion US dollars, but the impact on China's bond market, foreign exchange market and stock market is limited, which fully reflects the economic and market volume of large open economies in dealing with external shock risks. Advantage.
The stable structure of my country's balance of payments will help strengthen the "firewall" against short-term capital flows. On the one hand, my country's current account has maintained a surplus of a reasonable size. The surplus in the first quarter was US$88.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%. According to preliminary estimates, the surplus in the second quarter will still maintain a certain size.
In addition, my country's industrial chain and supply chain are stable, and it is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories recognized by the United Nations. In recent years, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry has steadily advanced, which will support the trade in goods to maintain a surplus and help to consolidate the basis for a reasonable and balanced current account.
On the other hand, the domestic business environment has been continuously optimized, the consumer market has huge potential, and high-end manufacturing and emerging service industries have become more attractive to foreign capital. Cross-border capital related to direct investment in China will continue to flow in steadily. In addition, in recent years, my country's external debt structure has been optimized.
By the end of 2021, the proportion of traditional financing external debt has dropped by more than 20 percentage points compared with the end of 2014, and the pressure on external debt deleveraging will be reduced in the future. In addition, the scale of my country's foreign exchange reserves has remained basically stable, and the basis for the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market has become more solid.
The high-level opening of the financial market will also help boost foreign investors' confidence in holding RMB assets in the medium and long term. my country will continue to promote high-level opening of the financial market, and continue to consolidate the legalization and internationalization of the bond market, which will create a stable investment environment for international investors.
At the same time, the internationalization of the renminbi is progressing steadily. In May this year, the International Monetary Fund (imf) raised the weight of the renminbi in the special drawing rights basket to 12.28%. my country's bonds are gradually being included in the FTSE Russell Bond Index. Index allocation funds will still flow into my country's bond market.