News

Euro Analysis, Forex MT4.MT5 Financial News

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：122

On July 18, market analyst James Skinner said that the euro against the dollar rebounded from below parity levels before the weekend, and if all goes well with the ECB and the euro zone economy this Thursday, it may rise further in the next few days, trying to recover 1.02.

 

 

 

The Bank of Canada opted to raise rates by a massive 100 basis points last week, while U.S. CPI data for June suggested the Fed's return to its 2% target may take longer than many had expected. After that, expectations for a 100 basis point hike in U.S. interest rates rose.

 

But a swift rebuttal from Fed policymakers, followed by a string of better-than-expected U.S. economic data, sent the dollar lower, with the euro recovering ahead of the weekend and raising questions about whether the dollar will weaken further in the coming days.

 

In this case, EUR/USD is likely to continue to benefit, although by far the most important factor in determining the outlook for the euro will be the ECB's policy decision this Thursday and synchronized developments in the European gas market.

 

The upside risk to the euro against the dollar this week is whether the ECB will unleash more upfront tightening by raising rates by 50 basis points, according to Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG. The ECB's anti-fragmentation policy tool plans favored by market participants. By contrast, if the ECB's anti-secession policy tool plans disappoint and/or Italy is closer to an early election, the fundamental case for a weaker euro will be strengthened. "

 

Italy's parliament is scheduled to vote on Wednesday on whether to call early elections, which many analysts say will pose downside risks to the euro. In addition, whether the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline will resume after a 10-day maintenance shutdown will have a major impact on the outlook for European economies and the European Central Bank's interest rate policy in the coming months.