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AUD/USD in-depth analysis, MT4.MT5 market grasp

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：122

The US dollar fell moderately yesterday, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rebounded slightly overnight. U.S. stocks were mixed, with the SP500 closing down 0.92%. Crude oil prices plunged 7%. Wall Street's earnings season kicked off with an upbeat earnings report from PepsiCo, Inc., which raised its revenue forecast. Several major banks are due to report results later this week.

 

Treasury yields fell, with larger losses on the long end, further pushing up the 2-year 10-year Treasury yield spread, leading to an inversion of yields and heightening market participants' heightened concerns about a global recession. Auction demand for the 10-year Treasury note was weak ahead of tonight's U.S. consumer price index (CPI). Analysts expect U.S. inflation to rise to 8.8% in June from 8.6% in May.

 

Gold prices fell nearly half a percent despite a weaker dollar. This weak move in gold prices appears to be driven by a sharp drop in breakeven rates, i.e. by falling nominal yields and rising inflation-linked yields. Silver prices were also lower. The strengthening in real yields may have also weighed on oil prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 4.8 million barrels in the week to July 8.

 

China's June trade data is scheduled to be released today. Analysts expect exports to rise 12.5% year-on-year and imports to rise 4.0% year-on-year. If the data beat expectations, it may ease concerns about economic growth brought about by the zero-zero policy. Currently, some cities are reimposing strict restrictions. In addition, second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on Friday.

 

Follow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision

 

The New Zealand dollar edged higher against the greenback after hitting fresh multi-year lows earlier in the week. NZD/USD was dragged down by falling commodity prices, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expected to raise the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points today.

 

New Zealand faces relatively strong inflationary pressures. However, lower demand and lower business confidence could lead the RBNZ to ease rate hikes later this year. For now, New Zealand's real interest rates remain severely negative. If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand changes its hawkish stance at this time, it could further depress the kiwi.

 

AUD/USD is trading below a downtrend line from the October 2021 high, near the year's lows. The exchange rate has formed a falling wedge shape since June. If it can break the wedge resistance level, it is expected to see the AUD/USD rise further. On the contrary, if it breaks the wedge support level, the market may accelerate the decline.