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MT4.MT5 trading XAU/USD gold trend forecast

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：117

Gold all the way down, approaching important support

XAU/USD gold has been on the defensive for the past four weeks, with the bulls failing to intervene much productively on gold's decline. In early June, gold encountered resistance near an important Fibonacci level, forming a rising wedge pattern. 

 

The rising wedge is often seen as a bearish reversal pattern and it continues to work as bears push gold all the way to near 10-month lows.

 

The current support is somewhat related to the previous resistance, and is also the 50% mark of the main 2020-2021 range (which helped set this mark last month), as well as the 14.4% Fibonacci level of the same research range. Played a role early on, trying to help hold the low.

 

 

Heavy events follow, gold volatility will face a severe test

There are a number of bearish factors for gold, including a continuing surge in the US dollar. Earlier this week, the dollar continued to brush the highest level in nearly 20 years. 

 

But behind the surge in the dollar is something related to gold, both direct and indirect. The U.S. will announce the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) on Wednesday, which is expected to hit a 40-year high.

 

The last time the U.S. CPI was announced, the price of gold actually ushered in a rebound - all the way back to the Fibonacci level of 1881. It was Friday, and when the market opened the new week, gold's rally started to fade and some bears have since taken hold.

 

However, in a sense, the 1830 line is actually a support convergence area and it played a supporting role, which led to a rapid rebound of gold to the 1881 line, and then the bears began to take control and caused a wave of decline, until It's still working today, almost a month later.

 

Gold Trading Strategy

Here, one thing is clear that the main trend for gold is bearish. However, at this particular point in time, when gold prices are sitting on support levels near important lows, shorting remains attractive, but the current level makes doing so challenging.

 

In addition, in view of gold's reaction to last month's CPI data, judging from the fact that gold rebounded by more than $50 after inflation fell, as we usher in the latest US CPI data this Wednesday, it is expected that gold is expected to fluctuate by then. 

 

That's not to say that another $50 rally is in store for gold, but the possibility of such a rally is there, as we've seen recently (even if inflation rises further).

 

Gold prices are now sitting around the 1723-1733 range that served as support last October and helped hold the lows, both of which are Fibonacci levels. The upper range is 1763-1771, which is a potential resistance area. 

 

If this range fails to hold the highs, the previous short-term support, the 1805 line, could act as potential resistance for another lower high.

 

Long-term forecast of gold price trend

Gold prices have remained range-bound for nearly two years. On August 7, 2020, after the gold price hit a record high at the 2089 line, the gold price constructed a wide trading range, and the bulls have been on the sidelines ever since.

 

The range support has faced a test, but it does not seem to have ushered in any test since gold quickly fell below the 1680 line on August 9 last year.

 

 A fall below the 1680 line will mean that the price of gold has refreshed the lowest level in nearly 2 years, and there does not seem to be much important support before hitting the 1450 line.