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Mt4.mt5 foreign exchange transaction reminder: USD / Euro analysis

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：119

In the morning trading of Asian markets on July 4, Beijing time, the US dollar index fell slightly and is currently trading near 105.06. On Friday, the US dollar and the yen rose, as weak US manufacturing data intensified concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth, boosting the demand for safe haven, and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar fell to the lowest level in two years. Westpac bank said that even if the RBA raised interest rates this week, it would not boost the Australian dollar because of the decline in global stock markets.

The safe haven dollar rose on Friday, helped by pessimism about the global economic outlook, while the Australian dollar, regarded as an indicator of global economic growth, hit a two-year low.

Rampant inflation and rapid interest rate hikes by central banks to prevent low-cost funds from flowing into the market contributed to the sell-off in various markets, boosting assets that were considered relatively safe.

FXStreet. "When people are worried, they will still buy dollar assets," said Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at www.com The dollar rose even as concerns about the economic downturn pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to a one month low. On Friday, the dollar index rose 0.41% to 105.121, slightly lower than the 20-year high of 105.79 hit on June 15.

Mohamed El Erian, chairman of Gramercy fund management and Bloomberg columnist, said in an interview: "what I find really interesting is that even though U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply, the dollar is still stronger today. This shows that the market is more worried about economic growth outside the United States than about the United States, and the United States is still regarded as a haven. This is a global story."

On Friday, the euro fell 0.53% to 1.0426 against the US dollar, having previously fallen to 1.0366, with the key support level near the year's low of 1.0350.

The euro hit a five-year low of 1.0349 on May 13. Inflation in the eurozone hit a new high in June, while manufacturing production fell for the first time in two years. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade this month, but economists are divided on the extent of the increase.

Last Friday, the US dollar fell 0.7% to 134.75 against the yen, and the decline narrowed in the late trading, and finally fell 0.31% to 135.25.

John Hardy, head of foreign exchange strategy at Shengbao bank, said in the report that if U.S. data fail to confirm the signal of economic recession in the next few days and the benchmark U.S. Treasury bond yield rises, the dollar may rise sharply against the yen.

Risk sensitive currencies underperformed. On Friday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6762 against the US dollar, the lowest since June 2020, and finally fell 1.27% to 0.6814.

The RBA will announce its policy decision on Thursday, and the market expects its key interest rate to increase by 50 basis points. However, analysts at Westpac bank said that the impact of the interest rate hike on the Australian dollar may not be significant. As the RBA's interest rate hike ultimately failed to offset the strong downward drag of the global stock market sell-off, the Australian dollar is expected to further underperform.

Last Friday, the pound hit a two-week low of 1.1975 against the dollar after official data showed that the UK current account deficit in the first quarter of this year hit its largest since records began in 1955. On Friday, the pound fell 0.70% against the dollar to 1.2092.

Outlook for key data and major events on Monday

Summary of institutional views

1. Nomura Securities: GBP / USD will fall to 1.18

① Jordan Rochester, foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities, said he expected the pound to fall to 1.18 against the dollar;

② The reasons given by him include: Britain's trade deficit is expanding, the rate increase of the Bank of England will be lower than that of other countries, and the British government has significantly increased taxes and reduced energy subsidies

2. Ig: the attractiveness of the US dollar is as strong as that at the beginning of the year

① Chris Beauchamp, an economist at Ig, said that in view of the current pessimism that seems to prevail, it is not surprising that new safe haven funds have flowed into the US dollar;

② He believes that even without strong inflation, when the idea of global economic recession turns, the dollar also has a lot to recommend, but the steady rise in price means that the attractiveness of the dollar is as strong as at the beginning of the year

3. Westpac Bank: the RBA's interest rate hike this week is unlikely to boost the Australian dollar

① The RBA dominates the near-term outlook for the Australian dollar, and investors are expected to announce a 50 basis point interest rate hike next Tuesday;

② However, analysts at Westpac bank in Australia said the impact of the interest rate hike on the Australian dollar might not be significant;

③ In its weekly currency briefing, Westpac bank said it expected the Aussie dollar to perform further poorly as the RBA's interest rate hike ultimately failed to offset the strong downward drag of the global stock market sell-off

4. CICC macro: U.S. recession worries are intensifying, and interest rates are hard to peak

① The US ism manufacturing PMI in June was lower than expected, with new orders falling below 50, indicating a slowdown in demand. At the same time, real consumer spending in the United States fell month on month in May, intensifying market concerns about the U.S. economic recession. But on the other hand, labor shortages, rising raw material prices and other factors continue to exist, and it is difficult to remove the inflation risk in the United States;

② On the whole, the U.S. economy is facing a triple attack of rising prices, monetary tightening and weak demand. The U.S. bond market reacted strongly to this. Led by the recession transaction, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds fell sharply. However, as inflation is still resilient, we believe that the U.S. bond interest rate is hard to peak.

5. Citigroup: there are too many headwinds in the UK economy

① Citigroup said that as far as the UK is concerned, there are too many adverse economic winds; The household savings buffer is very low, there is no meaningful financial support, and the current account deficit is expected to double this year;

② Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said last Wednesday that the central bank did not necessarily have to take "strong" action to control inflation. As soon as this statement was made, the expectation of a larger interest rate hike eased. Last Friday, traders bet that the Bank of England would raise interest rates by less than 150 basis points before the end of the year