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Mt4.mt5 foreign exchange transaction reminder, USD / Euro analysis

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：118

On the morning of June 29, Beijing time, the US dollar index fell slightly and is currently trading near 104.46. On Tuesday, the dollar rose and the euro fell. Before that, European Central Bank President Lagarde did not put forward new views on the policy prospects of the central bank.

It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will follow other central banks around the world to raise interest rates in July to curb soaring inflation, although economists are divided on the extent of interest rate hikes.

The euro fell 0.6% to 1.0502 against the US dollar in late trading on Tuesday, ending 0.6% lower at 1.0517. Lagarde previously said that the European Central Bank would take action gradually, but it could choose to take decisive action when the medium-term inflation outlook worsened, especially when there were signs that inflation expectations had broken down.

Mazen Issa, senior foreign exchange strategist at dominion securities in New York, said: "the European Central Bank is in a difficult situation because it is expected to see a more serious economic slowdown than many peers have seen." Issa added, "there are inherent limits to how much the ECB can do, especially relative to the Federal Reserve." He was referring to the risk of fragmentation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the eurozone.

The money market predicts that by the middle of 2023, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by about 238 basis points, compared with about 280 basis points expected two weeks ago.

In addition, the euro was pressured by investors' selling and stop loss selling as concerns about Russia's cessation of natural gas supply intensified.

The dollar index hit a 20-year high of 105.79 earlier this month. On Tuesday, the dollar index closed up 0.51% to 104.5125.

Marvin LOH, senior global macro strategist at State Street, said, "if there is an overall theme, it is that in the current period of uncertainty, the dollar will strengthen. I expect this uncertainty to continue until at least the summer, until we have a better understanding of inflation."

In an interview on Tuesday, New York Fed chairman Williams said that by the end of this year, interest rates "certainly" need to be between 3% and 3.5%, but he did not expect a recession in the United States.

On Tuesday, the US dollar rose 0.49% against the yen to 136.124, thanks to rising US Treasury yields and higher oil prices. The exchange rate is at 136.71, the highest level since this year.

Sterling fell 0.68% to 1.2181 against the US dollar on Tuesday, as the euro rose against sterling and Walgreens was previously reported to have abandoned its boots business. The US dollar rose more than 0.1% to 1.2893 against the Canadian dollar on Tuesday, thanks to the deterioration of risk appetite; Affected by the rise of oil prices by more than 1%, the exchange rate once fell 0.5% to a low of 1.2818, and finally closed up 0.02% to

1.2875。

Key data and major events on Wednesday

There are many major events that need attention on Wednesday, as follows:

The 184th OPEC conference was held, Cleveland Fed chairman mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations, and the NATO summit was held; Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, Bailey, President of the Bank of England, and Carstens, President of the bank for International Settlements, delivered speeches at the European Central Bank forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech, and Cleveland Fed chairman mester delivered a speech.

Summary of institutional views

1. Goldman Sachs: European bank hawks are expected to support the euro;

① Economists at Goldman Sachs believe that the euro may still be supported in the coming weeks against the backdrop of hawkish expectations from the European Central Bank. Goldman Sachs economists' expectations for economic growth in the second half of this year are lower than general expectations, and they believe that there is still a significant risk of further disruption of natural gas supply, which will push the possibility of a recent economic recession to about 40%;

② But at the same time, when the European Central Bank made a major policy change (that is, withdrawing from negative interest rates for the first time in eight years), economists found it difficult to be completely bearish on the euro

2. S & P economist: the US economy is expected to grow by 2.4% this year

① Beth Ann bovino, chief economist of S & P in the United States, said that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, but the rise in prices and interest rates may plunge the U.S. economy into recession in 2023;

② The economic momentum brought about by consumer elasticity may maintain economic stability this year, but continued high prices and radical interest rate hikes will put pressure on economic growth next year. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies the supply chain and price pressure, it is difficult to see the U.S. economy "unscathed" out of 2023. It is expected that by 2023, the growth rate of U.S. GDP will slow to 1.6%, and the unemployment rate will climb to 4.3% at the end of next year.

3. Goldman Sachs: high yield emerging Asian currencies may continue to fall

① Strategists at Goldman Sachs, including Zach pandl and Danny suwanapruti, said that under the influence of the deterioration of external finance and the risk aversion caused by the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve, high-yield emerging Asian currencies may continue to fall;

② In a research report, they wrote: "in addition to the broader emerging market monetary complex, high-yield currencies such as the Philippine Peso, Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah also faced pressure in June. In the next few weeks, we expect this pressure to continue, which may pose an upward risk to our dollar currency pair expectations in some cases."

4. BlackRock bet on the success of the ECB's anti fragmentation tool

① BlackRock is betting on the success of the ECB's anti fragmentation tool. The world's largest asset management company predicted that the interest rate gap between Italian and German 10-year Treasury bonds would narrow as the European Central Bank launched a new tool designed to prevent unprovoked fluctuations in the spread of eurozone bonds;

② Marilyn Watson, head of global basic fixed income strategy at BlackRock, said that the company had made profits in the transaction, but was ready to further narrow the interest rate gap. "If the European Central Bank is really strengthening its support for bond spreads in peripheral European countries, it will indeed affect the way all investors view European assets, including us," she said "We expect that the spread expansion will be limited."

5. Morgan Stanley: it needs to take a defensive stance in the credit field

Due to geopolitical and policy concerns, we advocate a defensive stance in the credit sector. We believe that although current valuations largely reflect changes in monetary policy, we are skeptical that they fully reflect the risks of growth prospects.

Credit spreads in Europe are expected to expand further, and they are particularly vulnerable given that lower quality credit is more sensitive to economic growth. The increased volatility of government bonds in peripheral countries of the euro zone is also a risk faced by credit. The degree of any economic spillover depends on the credibility of the anti financial fragmentation plan in the European Central Bank plan