News

Judging the trend of USD / JPY, I will take you to analyze MT4 in depth MT5 trading market

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：114

The dollar / yen recovered its decline after the Fed's interest rate decision and continued to remain above the 50 day moving average (130.79). As James Brad, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting Committee and chairman of the St. Louis fed, revealed in 2022 that he "advocated advancing the schedule of quantitative tightening (QT) in the United States", the exchange rate may continue to follow the upward moving average.

Recently, the Federal Reserve has stepped up its efforts to combat inflation. As Brad warned at an event held by UBS, "we have been buying assets for too long"; Considering that the central bank plans to have a "reasonable strategy" after the initial stage of QT, it remains to be seen whether the FOMC will continue to adjust the forward-looking guidance in the next interest rate decision on July 27.

Before that, the divergent path between the FOMC and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should support the dollar / yen, because bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to implement the qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) plan through yield curve control (YCC), while the update of the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) may have little impact on the outlook of monetary policy, Because it is still far above the 2% target.

The annual rate of core PCE in the United States is expected to narrow for the second consecutive month, which is expected to be 4.8%, compared with 4.9% in April; Evidence of stickiness in price growth may force FOMC to prepare restrictive policies for American households and businesses, because the committee insists that "continued interest rate hikes will be appropriate".

After hitting a new annual high (136.71) in June, the US dollar / yen may continue to follow the rising 50 day moving average (130.79), but the trend of retail investor sentiment seems to continue, and the US dollar / yen will be net short for most of 2022.

USD / JPY Ig customer sentiment

Nearly 25.53% of customers are net long, and the ratio of net short to net long is 2.92:1. The number of net bulls increased by 1.08% from yesterday and 1.26% from last week. The number of net short sellers decreased by 1.39% from yesterday and 1.15% from last week. Ig sentiment index is usually used as a reverse indicator, and most retail investors hold net short positions, suggesting that the US dollar / yen may rise. However, the net short position is lower than yesterday and last week. The latest position change warns that the US dollar / yen trend may reverse and decline, although most retail investors currently hold net short positions.

As more and more Federal Reserve officials show the willingness to further implement restrictive policies, the dollar / yen may continue to recover the losses from the high point of the year (136.71). When the U.S. yield rebounds, the exchange rate may try to clear the high point in October 1998 (136.89).

The US dollar / yen failed to test the high point in October 1998 (136.89), and the recent rise failed to push the relative strength index (RSI) into the overbought area. However, the retreat from the high point in the year (136.71) may become a correction of the general trend, and the exchange rate will continue to remain above the 50 day moving average (130.79).

If there is a trend back above the 135.30 (50% extension) region, it may push the US dollar / yen to the high point in October 1998 (136.89). If it breaks through / closes at 137.40 (61.8% extension) to 137.80 (316.8% extension), it will open the door to the high point in September 1998 (139.91).

On the other hand, the lack of momentum to maintain above the 135.30 (50% extension) region may push the US dollar / yen back to the Fibonacci overlap area near 132.20 (78.6% retracement) to 133.20 (38.2% extension). If it falls below the 50 day moving average (130.79), the focus below is in the 129.40 (261.8% extension) region.