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发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：119

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates the most since 1994 and consumer spending showed signs of weakness, Wall Street analysts warned that "the United States is about to fall into recession".

On Wednesday (June 15) local time, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 1.50% - 1.75%, the largest increase since 1994. Moreover, Fed chairman Powell's confidence in the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy also wavered. After the meeting, he said, "it will depend on factors beyond our control. The fluctuation of commodity prices may make us lose the possibility of a soft landing."

After the meeting, Wall Street analysts seemed to be increasingly convinced that next year's economic contraction would be inevitable. Wells Fargo analyst Jay Bryson said in a newly released report on Wednesday (June 15) that he expected a soft landing about a week ago, but now his basic expectation is a mild recession.

Wells Fargo currently predicts that as inflation becomes more entrenched in the economy, eroding consumers' spending power, and the Federal Reserve takes more proactive measures to address inflation, the U.S. economy will begin to experience a "mild recession" in the middle of 2023.

However, it is worth noting that the unemployment rate is still at a historically low level. Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time rose to a five-month high last week, the employment market is still tight. Wells Fargo believes that this strong momentum should support additional spending and prevent the economy from contracting too deeply.

At the same time, Moody's, an international rating agency, also said that the possibility of a soft landing of the U.S. economy was low. Ryan sweet, head of monetary policy research at the agency, said in a research report, "the Fed will raise interest rates until policymakers break inflation, but the risk is that they will also hurt the economy.

Economic growth is slowing down, and the impact of tightening the financial market environment and the cancellation of monetary policy has not yet impacted the economy. "

Retail sales in the United States fell for the first time in five months in May because rising prices hit consumers' wallets. Also on Wednesday (June 15), the Atlanta fed lowered its second quarter economic growth forecast to 0%. Scott minerd, Guggenheim's chief investment officer, said that given the slowdown in consumer spending, the United States may have fallen into recession.

Gonlac, the "new bond king", said, "I don't take the Fed's forecast seriously. It's foolish to believe that the inflation rate will fall to 2%. The liquidity of the bond market is deteriorating. I expect the fed to raise interest rates further this summer, and the Fed can't achieve a soft landing.

The probability of not falling into recession is very low. If the next recession comes, the Federal Reserve will soon reduce interest rates to zero. "

According to the latest estimate of the Bloomberg Institute of economics, the possibility of an economic recession by the beginning of 2024 is now close to three-quarters, which was not even possible a few months ago.

Michael Rosen, chief investment officer of angels investment advisors, said there was no sign that inflation was turning. The so-called "soft landing" of the economy looks increasingly unlikely.

"In our portfolio, the holding time of stocks and bonds is very short, while the holding time of fixed income products is even shorter. We hold much more cash than before. I think that shortening the holding time of risky assets and holding more cash is the way out now." He added.