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Foreign Exchange Trading: the trend of the US dollar? Give you the most complete guidance

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：121

The US index rose sharply, and the US CPI in May may may trigger a market storm

On Thursday (June 9), the US dollar index rose significantly by more than 0.7%, reaching 103.37, a new high since May 23. In addition to the dovish remarks released by European Central Bank President Lagarde to support the US dollar, the market believed that the US CPI data in May would exceed expectations, which also stimulated us dollar buying.

Reference reading: what did Lagarde say? The dollar rose violently in the short term and broke through the 103 level!

After the closing of U.S. stocks on the same day, a White House official warned of the soaring prices, saying that the White House expected "overall inflation to rise. The White House official told Fox News reporter Edward Lawrence that the upward surge in aviation fuel prices would penetrate into core inflation through the rise in ticket prices."

Data show that the price of aviation fuel in the United States has doubled year-on-year, reaching a record high. In order to offset soaring fuel costs, airlines raised ticket prices by a record before the summer tourist season.

However, the White House official also said that consumers' shopping focus is shifting from goods to services, which they believe will help reduce the pressure on the supply chain. At the same time, the official said that the U.S. economy was in a "good time" to transition to stable growth, saying that the hot job market and growing commodity demand showed that the United States was not in recession. On the same day, US Treasury Secretary Yellen also stressed that there was no sign that the economic recession was brewing.

However, many institutions do not agree with the view of U.S. government officials that the U.S. economy will not fall into recession.

On June 7 local time, the Atlanta Fed's gdpnow forecast model showed that the annualized growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States is expected to be only 0.9%, lower than 1.3% on June 1, suggesting that the U.S. economy may experience negative growth for the second consecutive quarter. Generally speaking, two consecutive quarters or more of GDP decline will be considered as economic recession.

The World Bank released its latest economic outlook report on June 7. It is expected that the U.S. economic growth rate will fall sharply to 2.5% from 5.7% in 2021, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the forecast in January. The report predicts that the US economic growth will continue to slow down to 2.4% and 2.0% in the next two years.

The latest poll jointly released by the Wall Street Journal and the national public opinion research center on June 6 shows that up to 83% of respondents believe that the current economic situation in the United States is "very bad" or "not good enough". More than a third of the respondents said they were completely dissatisfied with their financial situation, the highest level of dissatisfaction since the survey began in 1972.

At the same time, 46% of the respondents believed that it was "almost impossible" to improve their living standards in the future, while the proportion of respondents who believed that their living standards were "likely" to be improved was only 27%, a decrease of 20 percentage points from last year.

However, the Fed may not have time to consider whether the economy will really fall into recession, because inflation may be more severe than expected. In addition to White House officials "singing more" about inflation expectations in May, JPMorgan Chase did not show weakness.

Michael feroli, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase, recently predicted that the CPI will be higher than the market generally expected. In a report, Ferrari wrote that the CPI data in May may may rise by 0.8% month on month, higher than the market's expectation of 0.7%, while the April rise was 0.3% month on month.

The growth was mainly due to the strong rise in energy prices (4.6%), including the significant rise in gasoline prices again in the month, as well as the sustained and steady rise in food prices (0.7%) and core price index (0.47%). According to the above prediction, JPMorgan Chase expects the CPI data in May to remain at 8.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, and higher than the 8.2% generally expected by Wall Street.

In fact, despite Yellen's positive attitude towards the economic outlook, she has repeatedly warned that the unacceptably high inflation in the United States will continue, and admitted that there is still a risk of further rising food and energy prices in the United States when attending the event on Thursday (June 9).

At 20:30 on Friday (June 10), Beijing time, the U.S. Department of labor released CPI data for May. It is expected that the annual rate of U.S. non quarterly CPI in May recorded 8.2%, up from 8.3%; It is estimated that the monthly CPI rate in the United States after the quarter adjustment in May was 0.7%, compared with the previous value of 0.3%; It is expected that the annual rate of core CPI in the United States without quarterly adjustment in May recorded 5.9%, compared with the previous value of 6.2%; The monthly rate of core CPI in the United States is expected to record 0.5% in May, compared with the previous value of 0.6%.

This upcoming inflation report has attracted much attention from the market. It will affect investors' speculation about whether U.S. inflation has peaked, and will also affect the next policy trend of the Federal Reserve, thus causing the dollar to soar or plummet in the short term!

Among them, the author suggests paying attention to the performance of the non quarterly CPI annual rate in the United States in May. If the data remains above 8% (including 8%), it shows that the inflation in the United States is still worrying, and the pressure of the Federal Reserve's continuous sharp interest rate hike will be difficult to ease, thus stimulating the strength of the US dollar, and the US dollar index may not rule out a rapid rise to the 104 level. However, if the above data unexpectedly falls below 8%, the possibility of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate hikes in September will increase, or the dollar will suffer a heavy sell-off.

Technical analysis of US dollar index: it forms a short-term bottom and is expected to further strengthen

The four hour chart of the US dollar index shows that the price continued to fall after hitting 105.01 (x point) on May 13, and stopped falling and rebounded after hitting 101.30 (a point) as low as on May 31, out of a complete five wave decline structure. The market surged after breaking the downward trend line since the X point, breaking through the important pressure area of 102.73~102.87, forming a short-term bottom, suggesting that the market may rise further.

However, KDJ pointer has corrected overbought demand, and there is pressure for prices to retreat. The important support below is 102.73~102.87. If the price remains above this range, the overall bullish atmosphere will remain unchanged, and it is expected to further rise to the harmonic levels of 103.60 and 104.20 in the future.

However, if the downward fall falls into the 102.73~102.87 area, the short sellers will be encouraged. At that time, the market may once again explore the upward trend line since point a.