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Foreign exchange mt4 MT5 trading mystery: xau/usd gold price trend? Tuo takes you to predict

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：119

Under the combined effect of strong dollar and rising oil prices, gold's performance was sluggish

Although the market volatility has increased, gold is still in the doldrums. A strong dollar and rising oil prices put pressure on gold. Economists and large investment banks have warned of potential recession, but the current economic indicators surrounding the labor market and other areas remain strong.

The Atlanta Fed's gdpnow model predicts that U.S. GDP will grow by 0.9% in the second quarter. Uncertainty has driven the strength of safe haven assets, including the US dollar. The strong dollar is bad for gold prices.

Higher oil prices boosted inflation expectations, leading traders to sell U.S. Treasury bonds and push up Treasury yields. Rising oil prices will support inflation expectations, at least in the short term.

The Federal Reserve is largely focused on inflation, and oil price is one of the key components of market-based inflation expectations. In other words, if oil prices continue to rise, it is likely to have a negative impact on gold prices.

This Friday, the market will welcome the latest inflation (CPI) data in the United States. Considering that the decisions of the June and July meetings have been clearly transmitted, the author expects that Friday's CPI data is unlikely to have too much impact on the outlook of the Fed's policy path.

However, if the CPI far exceeds the market's expectations, it may further strengthen the bets later this year, especially if the latest CPI data promotes the further rise of long-term inflation expectations, which may cause inflation expectations to get out of control and trigger the Federal Reserve to react.

Technical forecast of xau/usd gold price trend

Gold prices are trading just below the important trend line since 2021 and the 61.8% Fibo pullback level. Just below the current level is the 200 day simple moving average (SMA). If it falls below this average, it will open the possibility that gold will further fall to the important psychological level of 1800.