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Mt4.mt5 trading market -- downward pressure on gold prices rebounded

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：116

At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday (June 6), spot gold fluctuated narrowly above the 1850 level. Last Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed strong performance, strengthening the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates aggressively, providing support for the US dollar and significantly putting pressure on the gold price; Although the geopolitical situation still provides some support for gold prices, and retail investors are still generally bullish in the future, analysts' bullish sentiment has cooled significantly.

Federal Reserve officials also continue to strengthen their expectations of actively raising interest rates. This week, they will also welcome the interest rate decision of the RBA and the European Central Bank. The market is generally expected that the RBA will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The European Central Bank is expected to pave the way for the interest rate hike in July, which may be detrimental to the gold price. Heavy economic data has not been released this trading day, and investors need to pay attention to the impact of non-agricultural data and relevant information about the geographical situation.

Fundamentals are mainly bad

[the US created more jobs than expected in May, and the strong labor market kept the Fed on a radical path]

The new non farm jobs in the United States in May exceeded expectations, and the wage growth remained at a fairly strong level, indicating a strong job market, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to continue to adopt aggressive monetary tightening policies to cool demand.

The closely watched employment report released by the U.S. Department of labor on Friday also showed that the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.6% for the third consecutive month, although more people entered the labor market. This depicts a picture of sustained economic expansion, although the pace has slowed down. The Fed's interest rate hike and the tightening of the financial environment have raised investors' concerns about next year's economic recession.

"It is still recruiting at such a fast speed, and the economy is still far from the brink of recession," said Christopher rupkey, chief analyst at fwdbonds in New York. "The slowdown is not enough to put out the inflation fire. The Fed's work has not been completed."

The survey of enterprises showed that the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by 390000 in five months. The non-agricultural employment data in April was revised up, showing an increase of 436000 jobs, higher than the previously released 428000. Although the employment growth in May was the smallest in a year, it was much higher than the monthly average level before the covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

The number of jobs now is only 822000 lower than the level before the pandemic. With the exception of leisure and hotels, manufacturing, health care, wholesale trade and local government education, most industries have recovered all jobs lost during the epidemic. Economists had previously estimated that the number of jobs in the United States increased by 325000 in May, and economists' estimates ranged from 250000 to 477000.

The Federal Reserve is trying to suppress inflation by curbing labor demand, and the annual growth rate of consumer prices has reached the highest level in 40 years. By the end of April, there were 11.4 million job vacancies, and almost every unemployed person had two jobs.

The average hourly wage rose by 0.3%, unchanged from April. This reduced the annual growth rate to 5.2% from 5.5% in April, but remained strong. Some economists believe that this shows that the wage increase has peaked and is cooling, which is dragged down by the slowdown in the wage growth of managers. The average hourly salary of production workers and non management personnel increased by 0.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.

Michael Pearce, a senior U.S. economist at Kaitou macro in New York, said, "only when the wage growth slowed to close to 4% in that year will the Federal Reserve claim that it has made significant progress in achieving its inflation target."

High inflation is eroding consumers' purchasing power and business investment, but economists believe that the fundamentals of the economy are strong and any recession may be mild.

"This report should be a little reassuring, because the economy has the momentum to absorb the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike in the coming months," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan asset management. "However, the increase in labor supply and the slowdown in wage growth also show that if the Fed is patient, the economy can enter the path of slow and stable growth and low inflation."

David meger, head of metal trading at high ridge futures, said: "if the Fed believes that the economy remains stable during its interest rate hike, they may feel more courageous to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes."

Analysts believe that the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is better than expected, strengthening the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates aggressively in the next few meetings. The rise in US Treasury yields has also reduced the attractiveness of gold

[Federal Reserve mester said it may need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in September]

Cleveland Fed chairman mester said last Friday that the Fed may need to continue raising interest rates at the current rate in September unless there is "convincing" evidence that inflation has peaked according to a series of data.

Mester and other Fed policymakers, including Chairman Powell, have hinted that after raising interest rates by 50 basis points last month, they will continue to raise interest rates by the same amount at the June and July meetings.

Mester said, "if I don't see convincing evidence when the September meeting is held, then I will probably vote for a 50 basis point increase in interest rates."

She added that the Fed did not need to make a decision on this at present, but so far, she thought she had not seen enough data to convince her that inflation began to fall. "My starting point will be whether we need to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points. If I see convincing evidence that inflation is on a downward trajectory, maybe we can raise interest rates by 25 basis points. I don't belong to the camp that believes we need to suspend action in September."

Before the next meeting on June 14-15, Fed policymakers will enter a period of silence. Mester was the last policy maker to speak before that. On Thursday, fed vice chairman Brainard expressed a similar view, suggesting that she would not support the suspension of interest rate hikes in September.

The expectation of interest rate futures traders is that the Federal Reserve will raise the target range of policy interest rate to 2.75%-3% by the end of the year, which is 200 basis points higher than the current level.

Investors and chief executives are increasingly worried that these interest rate increases, together with inflation at its highest level in 40 years and other risks, may trigger what J.P. Morgan CEO Dimon called an economic "hurricane". Tesla CEO musk also said that he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy.

"I didn't see a hurricane," mester said. "However, we must recognize that the risk of economic recession has risen." this is not only because of the interest rate hike, but also because the Russian war in Ukraine led to the slowdown of the European economy, as well as the containment of the epidemic in Asia, which suppressed local demand and further disrupted the supply chain.

Nevertheless, she said that the Federal Reserve would further tighten monetary policy.

Mester said, "the process is to raise interest rates, maintain this trend, and see how demand responds to it -- we have seen the financial situation tighten, which will help ease demand -- there will be other things happening on the supply side." She added that she believed the Federal Reserve would be able to promote the economic slowdown without causing serious problems.

[the US dollar rose, and the strong US employment data provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening policy]

The US dollar rose 0.4% to 102.18 against a basket of currencies on Friday after the US released a better than expected employment report, indicating that the employment market is tightening, which may make the Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates aggressively.

"The non farm employment data is quite stable," said Minh Trang, a senior foreign exchange trader at Bank of Silicon Valley. "The strong employment data supports the expectation of further interest rate hikes in the second half of the year.".

George saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, said that the US dollar "priced at a very extreme risk aversion premium, which rarely lasts. At present, investors are lifting such positions."

Optimistic analysts believe that the tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve is based on the fact that the economic growth of the United States is stronger than that of Europe, especially after the embargo on Russian oil, which may damage the economy of the eurozone.

[Bank of America expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at least twice in 2022]

Bank of America expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in July and September, and by 25 basis points in October and December.

This prediction is far more hawkish than the current consensus of economists, which means that the deposit interest rate will increase by 150 basis points this year. Economists Ruben Segura cayuela and Evelyn Herrmann said in a report that they were more certain about the overall rate increase.

"We firmly believe in raising interest rates by 150 basis points in 2022," they wrote. "But we are not so sure about the exact timing of raising interest rates by 50 basis points."

The two economists also predicted that the interest rate hike of the European Central Bank would stop in 2023. Bank of America previously predicted four 25 basis point interest rate hikes this year and two next year.

They mentioned in the latest report that they were worried that the European Central Bank "did too much / too fast, causing problems in growth or interest rate differentials, or both." Although their forecasts were hawkish, they said they were "bearish on the macro outlook".

European Central Bank officials will meet this week and are expected to disclose plans to reduce stimulus measures, immediately end large-scale asset purchases and raise interest rates for the first time next month.

The prospect of interest rate hikes by global central banks will reduce the attractiveness of gold, because gold is a non yield asset, and the increase in interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Fundamental benefits

[the Ukrainians insisted on resisting the Russian army in the attacked cities in the East, and the war dragged into the 100th day]

Ukraine said last Friday that in the fierce battle for the capture of siviyerodonetsk, Ukraine recaptured a large area of territory and thwarted the Russian army's attempt to advance from the destroyed eastern industrial city on the 100th day of the invasion.

The Ukrainian defense minister said that his soldiers had been trained in Europe to use the new advanced missile system promised by the United States and Britain this week, which Kiev hoped would help make the battle develop in its own favor.

A war that western countries believe Russia plans to win in a few hours has lasted for more than three months, costing thousands of lives and destroying the global economy. The Russian army was driven out of Kiev and launched a new large-scale attack in the East.

Western critics say that the rise in global food prices caused by the war has harmed the interests of poor countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin denied that Moscow had blocked grain exports from Ukrainian ports.

Last Friday, Ukrainian leaders in the Lugansk region told state television that Ukrainian troops had recaptured about 20% of the territory occupied by Russian troops in noviyerodonetsk.

Serhiy Gaidai, governor of Lugansk state, said: "when the situation was difficult, the proportion (controlled by Russia) was about 70%, and now we have recaptured about 20%

In the past few weeks, Russia has invested a large number of troops to compete for the city famous for its large chemical plant. Russia must occupy this city in order to achieve its stated goal of occupying the entire Lugansk state. Both sides bear punitive losses in the battle on the streets, which may lead to a long-term war of attrition.

According to the general staff of the Ukrainian military, Russian soldiers tried to cross the river from svirodynetsk to lisichansk, but were forced to retreat.

Washington said last week that it is expected that Ukrainians will need three weeks of training to use rockets with a range of up to 80 kilometers (50 miles), which may help eliminate Russia's artillery firepower advantage.

U.S. President Biden told reporters that at some time, the Ukrainian issue needs to be resolved through negotiation, but at the same time, the United States will help Ukrainians defend themselves.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said in his speech at night that Kiev was looking forward to more "good news" on foreign weapons after the United States provided Ukraine with the latest $700million weapons package. "Victory will belong to us," he delivered a video speech outside his office in Kiev late last Friday to commemorate the 100 days of war.

Moscow said that Western weapons would "add fuel to the fire", but would not change the process of its so-called "special military operation", which aims to disarm Ukraine and eliminate dangerous nationalists.

For both sides, Russia's large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks is one of the deadliest stages of the war. Ukraine said it would lose 60-100 soldiers every day.

Moscow has made slow but steady progress, compressing the Ukrainian troops in Lugansk and Donetsk provinces into one pocket, but has so far failed to encircle them.

At the same time, Kiev hopes that Russia's advance will drain Moscow's troops to a sufficient extent so that Ukraine can recapture its territory in the coming months.

[Russia attacked Kiev for the first time in weeks]

Russia attacked Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, with missiles earlier on Sunday (June 7), for the first time in more than a month.

Sunday's attack was the first large-scale attack on Kiev since the end of April. In recent weeks, Russia's attacks have mainly focused on the eastern and southern front lines, but occasionally attacked other places, calling it weakening Ukraine's military infrastructure and preventing Western weapons shipments.

Tass News Agency reported that President Putin warned the West that Russia would strike new targets if the United States began to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine. If such missiles are provided, "we will attack those targets we have not yet hit," Putin said in an interview with rossiya-1 national television channel.

[ism service industry index of the United States fell in May, and business activity growth slowed down]

Due to the slowdown in business activities, the growth of the US service industry slowed to its lowest level in more than a year in May.

According to the data released last Friday, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) service industry index fell to 55.9 from 57.1 in April. Although it is still firmly above the 50 watershed, it has been the weakest since February 2021.

The business activity index fell 4.6 last month to a two-year low of 54.5. However, another measure of demand, the new orders index, climbed to 57.6 in May.

The median expectation from Bloomberg survey is 56.5. Last month, 14 service industries achieved growth, especially mining, construction and real estate.

In the face of soaring oil prices, consumers have continued to maintain consumer spending so far, but high inflation (including record gasoline prices) coupled with rising borrowing costs may limit non essential spending in the coming months.

Ism survey showed that the service industry payment price index fell to 82.1, and the employment index rose slightly. But even so, it is only slightly more than 50.

[the three major stock indexes of the US stock market closed lower, and the strong employment report intensified the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates]

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Friday after a strong employment report weakened hopes that the Federal Reserve would suspend aggressive policy tightening, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to curb inflation at its highest level in decades.

The NASDAQ index, dominated by technology stocks, led the decline, down nearly 2.5%. tycoon