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发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：121

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday (May 26) Eastern time, as market concerns about the outlook for the Fed's policy eased. Bank of America strategists boldly predict that if the economy deteriorates and inflation falls, the Federal Reserve may suspend tightening monetary policy in September.

Bank of America: the Federal Reserve may suspend raising interest rates in September

The day before, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its policy meeting in May. The minutes of the meeting showed that all officials of the Federal Reserve agreed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the policy meeting in May to curb inflation, and most participants said that further interest rate increases in June and July might be appropriate.

However, the minutes of the meeting also showed that the Federal Reserve was trying to solve the problem of how to reduce inflation without triggering a recession or significantly pushing up the unemployment rate - a task that several participants said would be challenging.

Bank of America strategists said in a report that if the financial situation worsens, the U.S. central bank may suspend tightening policy in September and maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 1.75% to 2%.

They said, "we have seen subtle but significant changes in the Fed's communication mode recently. Some Fed officials suggested that taking into account the challenging macro background, the tightening of the financial environment and the possible weakening of inflation, we can choose to slow down or suspend interest rate hikes when it reaches 2% later this year."

Although Bank of America pointed out that this is not its basic scenario, they speculated that the Federal Reserve may believe that the federal funds rate of 1.75% - 2% provides "a kind of policy normalization, and then provides an opportunity to pause and evaluate the impact on employment and inflation."

The Fed's inflation target is 2%, and the current inflation rate in the United States is more than three times its target. Federal interest rate fund futures show that the current market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at each meeting in June and July, and another 25 basis points in September.

Not all banks agree with this speculation

However, other analysts do not believe that the Fed has shifted to a more dovish position.

Dow Jones securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates above neutral interest rates. Neutral interest rate means that it will neither stimulate economic growth nor inhibit the level of economic growth. Federal Reserve policymakers estimate that the neutral interest rate is about 2% to 3%.

However, Dow Jones securities also believes that after the policy meetings in June and July, the pace of interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve will be slower.

Brown Brothers Harriman, a private bank, said in a report: "the views expressed in the minutes of the meeting are all they can say at the beginning of the active tightening cycle. In the tightening cycle, no one really knows how far interest rates will go."

They said: "the Federal Reserve is facing a very complex situation, so it is trying to beautify its hawkish position and try not to promise any interest rate path in advance."