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"Mr. yen": the yen exchange rate is likely to reach 150 at the end of the year, hitting a new low for more than 30 years

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：126

Financial news agency, May 20 (editor Ma Lan) eisuke Sakakibara, who was once called "Mr. yen" and is now a professor at Aoyama University in Tokyo, recently said that due to the deepening differences between Japan and the United States on monetary policy, the yen may fall to its lowest level since 1990. The yen exchange rate will remain under pressure until the policy differences between the two countries narrow.

Sakara British capital once served as Japan's deputy finance minister. During his tenure from 1997 to 1999, he had a great influence on the money market and was called "Mr. yen". "The market expects that by the end of this year, it will hover between 140-150. The yen is likely to reach this level. If it exceeds 150, I think the Bank of Japan will be a little worried."

Analysts have different views

Rising U.S. bond yields have allowed investors to escape the yen market and turn to a more "fragrant" dollar. The loose attitude of the Bank of Japan makes this trend irreversible in the short term. For the depreciation of the yen, different analysts have different forecasts on the range.

According to an analyst survey by foreign media, the US dollar is expected to close at 128 against the yen this year, which is equivalent to the current exchange rate.

Commerzbank of Germany and Societe Generale of France believe that the yen will fall to around 150.

However, ANZ believes that the decline in the US stock market will lead to lower US bond yields and make the US dollar less popular, so that the US dollar may rebound to about 125 against the yen.

This view was supported by the decline of the dollar on Thursday. Yesterday, the dollar index fell 1.0%, reaching its lowest level since May 5. The dollar also fell to 127.87 yen, the lowest level in three weeks.

Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist of Scotiabank, said: "investors may have had enough of the US dollar and are seeking to diversify risks - especially when the rise in US bond yields seems to have reached the limit of support for the US dollar."

The Bank of Japan can't help it

The yen recently fell below 130 and depreciated sharply, causing anxiety in the Japanese government and business circles. So far, however, Japanese officials have not substantially changed their fiscal policies to prevent the depreciation of the yen, except for verbal intervention.

"Mr. yen" believes that the authorities are unlikely to intervene on a larger scale, because there are still reasonable explanations for the weakness of the currency.

"This is due to different monetary policies. I don't think the Bank of Japan or the Japanese government are actually worried about the current exchange rate situation."