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Experts say $1800 is the bottom of gold, ready to rebound to $2000

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：122

According to foreign media reports, after a disappointing start in May, gold may be at a critical point of breaking through $2000 per ounce.

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist, said that after falling 6.5% last month, gold is now close to the bottom, and $1800 per ounce is the bottom of the price.

Investors have been reassessing their risk positions as the Federal Reserve intends to tighten 50 basis points in June and July to combat inflation.

McGlone said, "the gold price is close to the bottom and is about to usher in a significant breakthrough. At that time, the gold price will exceed $2000 per ounce and will never look back. One day, the gold price will exceed $2000 per ounce, and this resistance level will turn into a support level and will never look back."

The $2000 per ounce level has always been a key psychological resistance level for gold. Although the gold price was close to this level in March, it failed to break through this level continuously this year.

The main obstacles faced by gold in the second quarter were the rise in US Treasury bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. This is particularly evident when gold's performance against the dollar is compared with that of the yen or the euro.

He explained, "the strength of the US dollar has put pressure on the price of gold denominated in US dollars. In yen terms, gold rose by 20%, in Euro terms, gold rose by 15%, while the US dollar was flat.

Therefore, gold holders in Europe and Japan perform much better, which is a good way to hedge their currency depreciation. It is only a matter of time to catch up in dollar terms. But once the headwind weakens, I think we are at a critical point, and gold should rise, which is only based on past performance. "

One of the factors that will trigger the next round of rebound will be the market's adjustment of gears to reflect the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. He pointed out that this situation has begun to happen.

He said, "this week is the first good omen I have seen for some time. I use one-year federal fund futures FF13 to predict interest rate hikes. They have just begun to cancel some tightening policies. Why should they do so? Because the stock market has reached a weak inflection point. I think the 10-year bond yield may reach a peak of 3%, the federal fund will peak at about 3.4%, and then fall to 3%."

The NASDAQ index has fallen 23% this year, which will help the U.S. stock market reach the inflection point. At that time, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates will be reduced. He said:

"The market is moving in this direction. We are at a time when the stock market decline is enough to help the Federal Reserve withdraw from the market tightening policy, alleviate inflation and bring us back to a deflationary environment.

This is the best basis for gold when it bottomed out in 2015 and 2018 in the past few years. "

He believes that the big problem facing the Fed for a long time is not inflation, but deflation. He said: "a year later, when you see the CPI of the consumer price index in April, it will be much lower, or even negative. The Federal Reserve hopes that the stock market will fall because they need to reduce people's ability to shop. I think this is just the beginning."

For example, the price of crude oil is likely to fall to $50 rather than rise to $200. If the US stock market continues to fall, it can actually guarantee that the inflation rate in 12 months will be lower.

He said: "you should measure inflation from the perspective of the overall situation. In 120 months, we will see a decline in bond yields. The underlying effect of inflation will decline."

In this case, gold will be the preferred asset. But he added that when configuring gold, it is best to pair it with bitcoin. He said: "from the perspective of modern portfolios, if bitcoin is not paired in the portfolio, gold is naked. Bitcoin is becoming a global digital collateral.

In almost all portfolios, it only accounts for a small part, and its momentum is increasing. I don't see anything that can stop this trend. The limited supply of bitcoin is the secret of rising prices. Unless demand or adoption declines, I see them rising. "