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WTI crude oil forecast: the risk of international oil price decline is intensifying, and the EU sanctions on Russian crude oil may be soft, and the oil supply giant Saudi Arabia has cut prices

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：117

WTI crude oil, Hungary, Russian oil ban, China, Saudi Arabia, crude oil technology forecast:

• oil prices continue to fall as economic difficulties put pressure on

• Saudi Arabia's state-owned Aramco slashed oil prices in June

• pay attention to whether WTI crude oil price falls below the key support level of 100

After the overnight sharp fall, WTI crude oil prices seem to fall further during the Asia Pacific trading session. A Bloomberg report suggested that,

The European Union is softening its position on the proposed ban on Russian oil, which seems to be the main reason for the sell-off.

Hungary's opposition is the main factor preventing the EU from completely banning Russian oil.

Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, raised security concerns about the ban. The ban has been brewing for weeks after Germany abandoned its position last month.

Hungary remains highly dependent on Russian energy products. The EU has previously provided exemptions to Hungary and Slovakia, but Mr. Orban said,

Hungary needs a five-year exemption and funds to transform Hungary's infrastructure. The oil market may wait for further information about the sanctions.

At the same time, in the context of China's covid epidemic blockade, broader economic concerns such as China's economic slowdown and rising inflation are intensifying market concerns about the state of the world economy.

Central banks are actively taking measures to deal with inflation in order to combat high expectations anchored in the economy, which will only further exacerbate high inflation.

Saudi Aramco announced that it would cut oil prices in June. This will reduce the premium paid by Asian buyers from more than $9 per barrel to $4.4 per barrel.

The premium paid by most European buyers will also be reduced next month. This shows that OPEC's major oil producing countries believe that demand will decline, possibly due to the covid epidemic, which has led to blockades across China.

Given the uncertainty of covid-19 in China and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a larger-scale correction is unlikely.

WTI crude oil technology forecast

The oil price fell below the main trend line and the 50 day simple moving average (SMA), indicating that it fell below the convergence support that has supported oil prices since December 2021.

The psychological level 100 line is now regarded as the most direct area of potential support. Falling below this level will focus on the 100 day moving average, which is currently near the 95 level.