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International oil price: the OPEC ministerial meeting is imminent, and the prospect of supply and demand supports the continued rebound of oil price in May. Where is the target?

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：121

Oil prices reversed before the April low of 95.28 and rebounded along the 50 day moving average (103.96), as long as OPEC continues to gradually increase supply,

The ministerial meeting on May 5 may stabilize the price of crude oil.

The prospect of international oil prices depends on the OPEC ministerial meeting

Compared with the beginning of this week, the oil price has not changed much, and the price remains within a clear range. However, as the 50 day moving average (103.96) continues the upward momentum since earlier this year, crude oil may tend to rise in the next few months.

If OPEC retains its current production plan, the upcoming oil group meeting may support the oil price. The current market conditions may push the oil price to test the April high of $109.20, because OPEC plans to "increase the total monthly production in May 2022 by 43.2 million barrels / day".

On the other hand, the expectation of limited supply and the recovery of crude oil demand make the oil price outlook bullish. According to the latest OPEC crude oil market monthly report, "the global crude oil demand is expected to average 100.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.4 million barrels per day compared with the estimate of last month and an increase of about 0.3 million barrels per day compared with 2019.

"The oil formation may continue to gradually increase production, because it said that" the fundamentals of the crude oil market and the consensus of the market on the prospects show that supply and demand will tend to balance in the future. "

Therefore, the failure of the oil price to test the April low of 95.28 may make the price continue to operate along the 50 day average (103.96). If OPEC retains its current production plan in the next few months, the oil price may test the April high of 109.20.

The oil price seemed to fall into a narrow range after breaking the opening range in April, but the 50 day moving average (103.96) continued to point upward, and the prospect of crude oil was positive, because the price rebounded along the moving average.

The failure of the oil price to test the April low of 95.28 makes the price rebound back to 104.20 (50% Fibo extension), and the breakthrough / closing at 108.10 (61.8% Fibo extension) will open the door to rise to 112.80 (161.8% Fibo extension) to 113.70 (78.6% Fibo extension).

The next focus area is around 115.00 (23.6% Fibo pullback), and further focus on 117.20 (78.6% Fibo pullback).

However, if the oil price fails to break / close above 108.10 (61.8% Fibo extension), it may continue to consolidate in the April range. If it falls below 100.20 (38.2% Fibo extension), it will fall again to the range of 93.50 (61.8% Fibo retreat) to 95.30 (23.6% Fibo extension).