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AUD / USD trend forecast: RSI hovers in the oversold range. The key to oversold or rebound lies in the Reserve Bank of Australia!

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：122

AUD / USD seems to test the February low of 0.7033 further after refreshing the monthly low. Driven by the deterioration of risk appetite,

The strength of the US dollar made aud / USD retrace the gains after Australia's strong first quarter CPI data.

Before the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week (May 3), due to the unexpected contraction of U.S. GDP in the first quarter, the change in investor confidence seems to continue.

Changes in RBA policy may curb the recent sell-off of AUD / USD as the market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia's official cash rate (OCR) to increase from 0.10% to 0.25%.

If the governor of the Australian Central Bank Lowe continues to say that households and businesses should be prepared for a series of interest rate hikes, significant changes in forward-looking guidance on monetary policy may support the Australian dollar.

However, before that, with the rebound of US stocks, the volatility of risk appetite may become the main factor driving the trend of the Australian dollar / US dollar.

AUD / USD Ig customer Sentiment Report

Ig customer sentiment report shows that 73.14% of retail investors are currently net bullish on aud / USD, with a long to short ratio of 2.72:1; Long positions increased by 5.49% from yesterday and 28.41% from last week; Short positions decreased by 14.48% from yesterday and 41.14% from last week.

As a negative indicator, retail investors' net bullishness suggests that the Australian dollar / US dollar may continue to fall.

AUD / USD technical analysis

At the beginning of this month, the Australian dollar / US dollar broke through the high of 0.7556 in October last year and subsequently brushed the high of 0.7661 in the year. At that time, the 50 day SMA tended to rise, and the exchange rate also stood on the 200 day SMA for the first time since July last year.

However, with the 50 day SMA moving downward, the decline of AUD / USD intensified, pushing RSI to fall into the oversold range for the first time since 2022.

RSI falling below 30 may further decline the AUD / USD. If the closing price falls below 0.7070 (61.8% Fibo extension) -0.7090 (78.6% Fibo pullback), it may further test the February low of 0.7033. If it further falls below the year low of 0.6968, it may open the downward space to test 0.6940 (78.6% Fibo extension) and 0.6820 (23.6% Fibo pullback).