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Foreign exchange news - the European Union wants to implement a phased ban on Russian oil, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive times, hitting a new high this week!

发布时间：2022-08-25 浏览：115

The tension between Russia and Ukraine again provided impetus for the continuous rebound of oil prices since this week. WTI crude oil rose 2.78% overnight, recording a rise for three consecutive days.

According to local media reports in Ukraine, violent explosions occurred in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and the southern city of Kherson. It is worth noting that the Russian Defense Ministry said this week that if Ukraine continues to attack Russian territory, Russian troops will attack the command center of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the peace talks had come to a dead end and promised that the Russian army would continue to fight until the task was completed.

There is no doubt that the market is increasing its bets that the Ukrainian and Russian troops will have a large-scale decisive battle in the Donbas region (mainly in Donetsk and Lugansk).

The influence of the geopolitical situation on the financial market once again outweighed that of the major central banks to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy (the Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points this week, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points in May, which is expected to exceed 90%).

As Russia plays an important role in oil and bulk commodities, oil prices, gold prices and other major commodities have strengthened with the US dollar under the geopolitical situation,

WTI crude oil rebounded further on Thursday (April 14), hitting an intraday high of $107.6. This week, it rebounded by 15% and recorded a rise for three consecutive days; Gold once broke through US $1980 and rebounded close to US $2000; The dollar index continued to hit a new high this year amid the weakness of the euro.

In fact, the rebound in oil prices is not unexpected. When the western countries led by the United States adopt energy sanctions against Russia, Russia may see a decline in production of 2-3 million barrels per day from April.

Although the United States and IEA Member States agreed to release strategic oil reserves in batches (up to 240million barrels in total) to alleviate concerns about oil supply shortages,

However, the low level of strategic oil reserve inventory calls into question its sustainability.

Meanwhile, Baker Hughes data released on Thursday (April 14) showed that U.S. drilling companies increased oil and gas drilling platforms for the fourth consecutive week,

However, under the impact of multiple factors such as limited oil well inventory, supply chain bottlenecks and capital constraints, the market expects that the growth rate of shale oil production in the United States will be difficult to exceed 1million barrels per day in 2022.

In addition, there has been no significant progress in the Iran nuclear negotiations, and OPEC is unwilling to increase production on a large scale. A series of factors suggest that the oil gap caused by sanctions against Russia is difficult to be fully filled.

To make matters worse, according to the New York Times, European officials are drafting plans for an oil embargo against Russia. It is understood that,

The proposed Russian oil embargo will be negotiated as early as after the last round of general election voting in France on April 24.

It is worth noting that the EU launched the fifth round of sanctions against Russia last Friday (April 8), including a ban on coal imports from Russia,

And give a 120 day transition period to complete the implementation of the existing contract to prevent default. Russia accounts for 45% of the total coal imports of the EU.

Under the background of global oil supply shortage and demand recovery, whether the EU's energy sanctions against Russia will be upgraded, and whether the Iran nuclear negotiations will have substantive results,

The combination of different event results will lead to the development of oil prices in different directions. Judging from the current situation, European energy sanctions against Russia are escalating,

And there is no progress in the Iran nuclear talks, which means that the general direction of oil prices will still tend to rise.

It is worth noting that due to the good Friday holiday on Friday (April 15), trading of U.S. crude oil contracts, foreign exchange contracts and Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ice) was suspended throughout the day.

Investors need to be alert to the possibility of a significant increase in oil price volatility under the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine in the future.